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Global Investment MattersEquity Market Insights
July 9 2024

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Oil & Gold Market Weekly SnapshotsJuly 9 2024

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• Global equities rose 2.0%

• After 14 years of Conservative leadership, the Labour Party won the general election, with Sir Keir Starmer becoming the new UK Prime Minister

• Brent crude rose 0.2% last week to $86.54 per barrel

• Gold rose 2.8% to $2,392.16 per ounce, the best week since early April

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Key Weekly Global Market Developments

USA

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• US equities rose 2.0%

• The ISM Manufacturing Index for June fell to 48.5 (below expectations of 49.1), with subcomponents for new orders and employment also showing contraction. However, the inflation aspect showed improvement, with the prices paid component dropping to a six-month low of 52.1

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell's positive comments on disinflation were balanced by a tighter labour market indicated by the JOLTS report. Job openings unexpectedly rose to 8.14 million in May, and the hires rate increased to 3.6%. The quits rate remained steady at 2.2% for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a stable labour market

• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q2 was revised down to an annualised rate of 1.5%, aligning closely with Q1’s 1.4% growth

• Payrolls increased by 206k, but revisions for the previous two months were down by 111k. Private payrolls rose by 136k and unemployment edged up to 4.1%

UK

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• UK equities rose 0.5%

• Growth in the UK’s manufacturing sector slowed in June, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.9, indicating continued expansion despite cost pressures

EUROZONE

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• European equities rose 1.0%

• The flash CPI (Consumer Prices Index) for June showed headline inflation falling to 2.5%, as expected, but core CPI was slightly higher at 2.9%. This reduced the likelihood of a rate cut at the next European Central Bank meeting, although a cut by September is still seen as likely

• The Euro Area's final composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for June was 50.9, slightly above the flash estimate but marking the first decline this year

REST OF THE WORLD

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• Global emerging market equities rose 1.9%

• Japanese equities rose 2.7% last week and Chinese equities rose 1.2%

• South Korea's inflation slowed to 2.4% year-on-year in June, lower than the expected 2.6%

• In China, the Caixin services PMI fell to 51.2 from 54 in May, raising concerns about a broader economic slowdown

• Japan's services activity contracted for the first time in nearly two years, with the Jibun Bank services PMI dropping to 49.4 from 53.8 in May. Household spending in Japan also fell unexpectedly by 1.8% year-on-year in May, complicating the Bank of Japan's interest rate decisions

Performance Data & Commentary

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