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Last week, the Federal Reserve ushered in a new monetary policy cycle by lowering interest rates. This pivotal moment offers a prime opportunity to evaluate the current investment landscape and market expectations.

Transitions in monetary regimes have historically coincided with increased price volatility across various US dollar-denominated asset classes. Shifts towards lower interest rates have often been accompanied by strong positive returns for traditional asset classes. Interestingly, the past 12 months have seen many asset classes outperform their 40-year averages.

The exceptional performance of the "Magnificent 7" companies has likely been a key driver of the robust overall outperformance in US equity markets. The Magnificent 7 refers to a group of seven large-cap, high-growth technology companies that have dominated market returns in recent years:

1. Apple (AAPL): The world's most valuable company, known for its iPhones, Mac computers, and growing services business.

2. Microsoft (MSFT): A leader in software, cloud computing (Azure), and productivity tools (Office 365).

3. Alphabet (GOOGL): The parent company of Google, dominating internet search and online advertising.

4. Amazon (AMZN): The e-commerce giant that has expanded into cloud computing (AWS), streaming, and other sectors.

5. NVIDIA (NVDA): A leading manufacturer of graphics processing units (GPUs) and a key player in the AI and machine learning revolution.

6. Meta Platforms (META): Formerly Facebook, this company owns major social media platforms and is investing heavily in the metaverse.

7. Tesla (TSLA): The electric vehicle pioneer that has disrupted the automotive industry and expanded into energy storage and solar technology.

Strong returns in corporate investment-grade and high-yield categories have been fuelled by a neutral to positive economic growth outlook and abundant systemic liquidity.

The real estate sector has seen an upward correction from previously oversold conditions.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) outperformed, bolstered by the relative strength of the US economy and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

While government bond returns aligned with historical data, commodities underperformed, largely due to concerns about the Chinese economy and its impact on global commodity demand.

It's important to note that asset returns over the past 12 months were unevenly distributed. Similar volatility is expected over the next 12 months, as the fundamental outlook raises more questions than answers. Economic growth and inflation may once again surprise to the upside.

Many technical indicators are signalling overbought conditions, with increased accumulation of high-risk assets. In the government bond market, the market is still ahead of the Fed, pricing in a more aggressive rate path.

Geopolitical considerations, particularly the upcoming US elections and ongoing fiscal challenges, are likely to take centre stage.

1. Sector Rotation: As interest rates decrease, sectors such as real estate and utilities may become more attractive. Momentum Asset Management can explore opportunities in these traditionally interest-rate-sensitive areas.

2. Emerging Markets: Lower US interest rates could benefit emerging market assets. Momentum Asset Management might consider increasing exposure to emerging market equities and bonds.

3. Corporate Bonds: With a potentially more accommodative monetary policy, high-yield bonds could offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.

4. Growth Stocks: Technology and other growth-oriented stocks may benefit from lower discount rates applied to future cash flows.

5. Alternative Investments: In a low-yield environment, alternative investments such as private equity or infrastructure projects might offer higher returns.

6. Currency Strategies: As rate differentials shift, currency markets may present new opportunities for carry trades or hedging strategies.

7. Inflation-Protected Securities: If inflation surprises to the upside, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) could outperform.

While history may not repeat itself exactly, it often rhymes. The current rate environment, echoing past cycles, presents numerous investment opportunities for Momentum Asset Management to explore and capitalise on in the coming months.